Our History is Long, But Our Memories Are Short
How We Got Here and What Comes Next
INTRODUCTION
I have more to say about what’s happening in politics right now. I don’t like forming opinions based on headlines or what other people are saying. I believe the best way to understand what’s coming is to look at the facts and then try to forecast what might happen next.
We’ve learned a lot about our real history, much of it long after we graduated high school. That matters.
As someone shaped by erasure and assimilation, I want to walk through the facts and reach a conclusion, but I want to bring you with me through that process. So we’ll start with a history lesson, ask ChatGPT to map out what the future might look like based only on facts, not opinions, and then look at what the possible game plan could be.
Thank you for being here.
HISTORICAL TIMELINE
Historical Foundations (Pre–2000)
Pre-1619: Indigenous peoples throughout North America were enslaved or forced into labor through Spanish, British, and early colonial systems. Mexican and Asian laborers, including Filipinos, Chinese, and South Asians, were exploited as indentured servants or forced laborers in early settlements and trade routes (e.g., Manila-Acapulco Galleon trade).
1619–1865: Chattel slavery, primarily involving African peoples and their descendants, defined U.S. labor, wealth, and power in the South. Enslaved Africans were sold as property and subjected to hereditary slavery and systemic violence.
1848: Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo. U.S. annexes northern Mexico (CA, AZ, NM, TX). Mexicans in these areas are promised citizenship but rights are denied in practice.
1865–1877: Post–Civil War Reconstruction followed by Black Codes and convict leasing (forced labor persists under different name).
1882: Chinese Exclusion Act – first federal law banning immigration by race.
1942–1964: Bracero Program recruits Mexican laborers with few protections to support U.S. agriculture.
1954: Operation Wetback deports over 1 million people, including U.S. citizens of Mexican descent.
1965: Immigration and Nationality Act removes race-based quotas.
1986: Reagan’s Immigration Reform and Control Act offers amnesty to ~3 million undocumented immigrants.
Post–9/11 Legal & Surveillance Framework (2001–2016)
2001: PATRIOT Act expands federal surveillance and detention powers.
2002: Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created; ICE is born.
2006–2014: Border militarization and detention increase under Bush and Obama.
Obama deports more people than any president in U.S. history (~3.2 million).
2014: Secure Communities program links local police to ICE databases.
Escalation Under Trump (2016–2020)
2016: Trump elected on platform of “build the wall,” Muslim ban, and anti-immigration rhetoric.
2017:
Muslim Ban implemented.
DACA protection revoked.
Family separation policy quietly begins at the border.
2018:
Thousands of families separated; ICE detains infants.
“Zero tolerance” border policy escalates detentions and asylum denials.
2017–2020: Trump deports ~1.2 million people (includes ~934,000 ICE removals and additional Title 42 expulsions).
2020: Trump threatens to invoke the Insurrection Act during George Floyd protests but is blocked by DOD and state officials.
Post–Trump & Policy Normalization (2021–2024)
2021–2024:
Biden attempts rollback of Trump-era immigration policy but keeps Title 42.
Deportations continue at high levels (~1 million, includes ~545,000 ICE removals and Title 42 expulsions).
Border conditions worsen.
Public trust in DHS and ICE continues to erode.
Current Crisis (2025)
Jan 10–May 2025:
Trump, re-elected, signs Executive Order 14159: “Protecting the American Homeland from Interior Threats.”
ICE raids resume at high intensity across California, Texas, and Illinois.
Reports of U.S. citizens detained, including children.
June 6–8, 2025:
ICE raids in Paramount and Compton spark protests.
Over 100 people detained.
Conflicting reports on protest violence.
Chain of Escalation:
Protesters assembled peacefully, many linking arms around ICE facility entrances.
LAPD declared an unlawful assembly.
National Guard fired tear gas and pepper balls.
Protesters scattered; fireworks and bottles were thrown in response.
After escalation, some individuals torched vehicles, broke windows, and blocked the 101 freeway.
Zip-tie arrests followed as buses were brought in.
June 7, 2025:
Trump federalizes 2,000 California National Guard troops under Title 10, without Gov. Newsom’s consent.
Gov. Newsom and AG Bonta condemn action as unconstitutional.
~300 Guard troops deployed to DTLA.
June 9, 2025:
700 active-duty Marines placed on standby at Camp Pendleton.
No formal Insurrection Act declaration (yet).
June 10, 2025 (As of Today):
Trump orders 2,000 more Guard troops to California.
Total force authorized: nearly 4,000.
Approximately 2,100 California National Guard troops deployed in the L.A. area (Los Angeles, Paramount, Compton).
700 active-duty Marines confirmed present in Greater Los Angeles area (from 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division).
Marines are staged for protection of federal property and personnel only; they have no arrest authority.
California files legal challenge in federal court seeking a restraining order against use of troops in immigration enforcement.
National and international protests grow.
Some demonstrators arrested in Little Tokyo after police used tear gas and flash-bang grenades.
Protests continue in other cities like San Francisco and Santa Ana.
Disinformation spreads on social media, stoking confusion and outrage.
CHATGPT FORECAST: U.S. GOVERNMENT TRAJECTORY MID-2025
Forecasting Parameters:
This forecast is built using the following nonpartisan parameters:
Verified Facts Only
All projections are based strictly on confirmed events and source-verified information as of June 10, 2025. Speculative or unverified claims have been excluded or labeled under misinformation themes.Historical Precedent
Scenarios draw from historical government responses to mass protests, military deployments, immigration crackdowns, and executive overreach (for example: 1960s civil rights era, post-9/11 security expansions, and 2020 George Floyd protests).Legal and Constitutional Frameworks
Forecasts consider current U.S. law, including the Posse Comitatus Act, the Insurrection Act, and Supreme Court precedents that define the limits of federal and state authority.Institutional Behavior Trends
Trajectories assume that federal agencies (DHS, ICE, DOJ) will follow current policy signals from the executive branch unless legally compelled otherwise.Public Response Patterns
Civil resistance, mass protest behavior, and disinformation responses are forecast based on prior U.S. and international protest dynamics, adapted to current political and social conditions.No AI Opinion
This forecast includes no subjective predictions, emotional framing, or partisan rhetoric. All assessments are logical extrapolations from factual input and legal structures.
NOTE: The 2,100 National Guard troops and 700 active-duty Marines currently in the Los Angeles area represent two distinct forces. The National Guard troops are federally mobilized under Title 10. The Marines are active-duty personnel from the 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, tasked with protecting federal property and have no arrest authority under U.S. law.
U.S. GOVERNMENT TRAJECTORY FORECAST MID TO LATE 2025
Current Crisis Summary (as of June 10, 2025)
Total authorized: 4,000 National Guard troops.
Currently deployed or staged: ~2,100 National Guard troops and 700 Marines in the Los Angeles area.
The Marines have no arrest authority and are restricted to protecting federal property.
The State of California has filed legal challenges seeking to block their broader use in civilian law enforcement.
ICE raids under Executive Order 14159 have triggered nationwide protests and over 150 arrests in Los Angeles alone.
Protests remain largely peaceful but are increasingly met with force.
Phase 1: Constitutional Friction (June to August 2025)
Key Indicators:
Ongoing legal battles in federal court over use of National Guard and Marines.
ICE raids and detentions continue, including profiling-based and indiscriminate arrests of U.S. citizens.
Civilian protests escalate. Use of non-lethal force increases.
Political leaders in sanctuary states file coordinated legal responses.
Likely Outcomes:
Emergency restraining orders may temporarily curb military use in immigration enforcement.
Public pressure mounts on Congressional leaders to intervene.
Trump administration tests Insurrection Act threshold, potentially invoking it in response to major unrest.
Alternative Outcomes:
Federal court rules more aggressively in favor of executive action, legitimizing wider military deployment.
State-level law enforcement refuses to coordinate with federal forces, causing breakdowns in public safety coordination.
Phase 2: Institutional Breakdown (September to December 2025)
Key Indicators:
Courts delay or narrowly interpret rulings, avoiding direct confrontation with executive power.
ICE expands cooperation with local police in non-compliant states.
Congressional investigations stall due to political gridlock.
Disinformation campaigns increase to delegitimize protesters and critics.
Likely Outcomes:
Normalization of federal troop presence in metro areas.
Expansion of Executive Orders governing domestic surveillance, movement, and public assembly.
Continued erosion of public trust in federal institutions and media.
Alternative Outcomes:
Widespread public backlash forces state referenda or emergency state legislative sessions to reclaim authority.
Coordinated nonviolent protest movements create legal pressure and public momentum for reform.
Phase 3: Democratic Retraction or Redefinition (2026 to 2028)
Key Indicators:
States like California and New York begin formal legal and legislative challenges to federal supremacy.
SCOTUS hears cases on limits of executive authority, including ICE's domestic reach and military use.
Parallel governance efforts emerge (for example: sanctuary state compacts, regional coalitions).
Possible Futures:
Democratic Reassertion: Judicial rulings favor limits on federal overreach. New legislation protects civil rights.
Authoritarian Drift: Federal authority prevails. Dissent criminalized. Future elections compromised.
Decentralized Resistance: Fragmentation increases. Some states operate semi-independently in defiance of federal mandates.
Misinformation Themes Circulating (June 10, 2025):
False claims that protesters were armed by organizers (no verified evidence).
Allegations that hammers found near protests are proof of premeditated violence (many construction workers were detained).
Assertions that the protests were entirely orchestrated by known extremist groups, despite broad multi-organizational participation.
Monitoring Priorities:
Invocation of the Insurrection Act
Civilian casualty or wrongful death during protests
Mass detentions of citizens without due process
Nationwide or regional suspension of habeas corpus or curfews
Bottom Line:
The next 6 to 18 months are pivotal. The U.S. is operating in a gray zone between constitutional democracy and federal overreach. Whether this moment becomes a democratic reckoning or regression hinges on court decisions, state resistance, and mass public action. If the administration continues to bypass legal norms, expand federal force, and detain citizens based on profiling, then the U.S. is increasingly trending toward an authoritarian enforcement regime, where executive power expands unchecked and opposition is subdued through militarized control rather than democratic consensus.
WHAT LIFE COULD LOOK LIKE UNDER AN AUTHORITARIAN ENFORCEMENT REGIME (2025–2028)
Imagine waking up in a city like Los Angeles in late 2025. The news warns of rolling ICE checkpoints. You now need to carry your ID at all times, even if you’re a citizen, no matter the color of your skin. You notice more drones in the sky, and heavily armed troops remain stationed at federal buildings.
If you post online about organizing a protest or sharing footage of an arrest, your account gets flagged, limited, or suspended. Independent journalists are denied press access. Some are detained and questioned. Livestreams are taken down in real time.
Mass protests still occur, but they’re quieter. Participants wear masks, not just for anonymity but because tear gas is expected. Legal observers are routinely arrested. Protest zones are cordoned off with military vehicles instead of barricades. Nighttime curfews in “high-risk” districts become normalized.
If you run a business, you’re expected to cooperate with immigration checks on your employees. If you’re a landlord, you could be fined for renting to the undocumented. If you’re undocumented or assumed to be, you risk being detained without warning, sometimes without charges, for days or weeks.
Schools shift civics education to promote “patriot values.” Protest is no longer taught as a form of speech, but a threat to order. Federal grant money is tied to state compliance with new security mandates. Whistleblowers are fired or charged. Gun rights remain in place for those aligned with the administration, but others face red-flag enforcement based on political affiliation or ethnicity.
This is not a hypothetical written in fear. It’s an extrapolation based on current statements, military deployments, enforcement trends, and Project 2025 policy outlines.
If public push back remains fragmented and courts fail to intervene, this isn’t just a possibility, it’s a plan in motion.
THE PROBABLE GAME PLAN AND OUR POSSIBLE COUNTERMOVES
OPTION 1: CURRENT GAME PLAN?
He needs the water.
Not for drinking, for military operations. He thinks that making this huge deal out of a couple dozen people protesting to keep our people from being deported, US Citizens and Undocumented alike, that he can basically do anything. He has been obsessed with our water for a while now. Do you know what happens when one person has complete control of the water? It’s called starvation. Water prices would skyrocket and the poor would die.
He wants the economy.
California, regardless of what the naysayers say and what they want you to believe, is the 5th largest economy in the world. He’s talking about pulling the FEMA funding again. He has rolled back our push for cleaner energy. We have a lot of land, he wants it.
He wants to punish us.
If he takes over, he can stifle the political threat caused by the Democrats in charge here. We are progressive, rich with diversity, and focused on the climate. He would diminish the national resistance seen. When we rise up, others feel empowered to do so as well.
He wants his international alliances & agenda fulfilled.
California has key ports and trade routes. Not only that, he would be able to control the sanctuary state protections. He will use California as the reason why the election will be overridden or delayed permanently.
With Trump overriding our autonomy through the acts he has executively passed, enforcing the military into the streets and discrediting local leadership this qualifies as a hostile takeover. So, right now, we need to do what we can to prevent that from happening.
OPTION 2: UNDERMINING COURTS AND GOVERNORS
TIMELINE OF ESCALATION
Week 1 to 2: Judicial Pushback
Federal courts begin issuing injunctions limiting or halting federal troop actions in California
Trump calls rulings partisan and begins attacking judges by name
State attorneys general file additional suits to protect constitutional authority
Week 2 to 4: Executive Workarounds Begin
DHS deploys additional ICE and CBP agents who are not subject to Title 10 restrictions
Federal aid to California is threatened or withheld
Trump forms direct partnerships with select county sheriffs in friendly jurisdictions
Week 4 to 6: Emergency Authority Expansion
Trump declares a new national emergency (e.g., "domestic insurgency" or "election threat")
Activates emergency powers to suspend certain civil liberties or delay accountability mechanisms
Signals readiness to invoke the Insurrection Act despite court resistance
Week 6 to 8: State Defiance and Parallel Structures
California escalates resistance through its own legal rulings and state guard maneuvers
Federal government attempts to freeze state budgets or bar access to emergency funds
DOJ begins investigations into state officials seen as obstructing federal action
Week 8 to 12: Constitutional Crisis Deepens
Military leadership may split or issue clarifying statements
National protests expand; federal response intensifies
Trump floats delaying the election due to instability and unrest
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
Elected Officials:
Assert State Sovereignty in Court: Governors and attorneys general can continue challenging federal overreach, especially the use of military force and unauthorized detentions, through emergency injunctions in federal court. (Check)
Refuse State Cooperation: States and local governments can legally refuse to assist in federal immigration enforcement, refuse to share data, and shield residents through expanded sanctuary policies. (Check)
Enact Emergency Transparency Laws: Legislatures can pass laws requiring full public disclosure of all cooperation with federal enforcement, including military deployments. (Developing)
WHAT COMMUNITIES CAN DO:
Document Everything: Videos, affidavits, timestamps, this kind of public and legal documentation will matter in both courtrooms and history books.
Mutual Aid Networks: Food, shelter, rides to court, communications backup. These grassroots efforts replace the social systems under stress or attack.
Safe Zones & Rapid Response: Establish networks to monitor raids and detentions in real time, verify information, and deploy legal observers or support when needed.
RETHINKING PROTEST STRATEGY IN CALIFORNIA
The protests have made the world look. But we need to ask ourselves what the cost is when the administration is actively looking for an excuse to escalate. If continued public protest is the trigger they are waiting for to invoke the Insurrection Act or justify a longer military presence, then we need to change the playbook. That does not mean we stop fighting. It means we shift tactics.
There is power in visibility, but there is also power in refusing to play the part they have scripted for us. Right now, California needs to pivot. Let’s pause street protests in the short term, not because we are afraid, but because we are not about to hand them the justification they are hoping for. Use that energy to document, organize, support court challenges, and protect each other. Strategy wins movements. Not just volume.
WHAT INDIVIDUALS CAN DO:
Know Your Rights: Everyone, citizen or not, has rights. Carry a card with legal hotline numbers. Do not speak to ICE or military without a lawyer present.
Support Civil Rights Orgs: Donate, volunteer, or elevate the work of groups like ACLU, National Lawyers Guild, Immigrant Defense Project, and others actively intervening.
Stay Loud & Strategic: Calls, emails, public comment at city council meetings. Organizing still matters. Silence is what authoritarian systems count on.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
Election Interference Signals: Any delay or restriction on voter registration, polling locations, or vote counting mechanisms.
Expansion of Federal Troop Presence: Especially in major Democratic-led states or cities. This is a red flag for political power grabs.
Censorship Acceleration: If major news accounts or advocacy networks begin disappearing or are penalized, it’s time to escalate public pressure and court intervention.
CONCLUSION
Ok, so ChatGPT thinks we’re headed toward authoritarian consolidation. Now, I need to point out that I’m a middle-of-the-aisle kinda gal. I suspected Trump would win but thought we were protected by the US Constitution and the people in government. I feel very wrong today.
The outcomes of what’s currently happening are scary. No doubt. If we can fend off this invasion, maybe we’ve still got a fighting chance. But the moment he took over our National Guard, we were fucked further into a bad situation.
No matter what your feelings are about Newsom, is it really worth it to help bring about famine and skyrocketing prices for everything? This isn’t just about California. He’s deporting a lot of his own constituents to stage a crisis, test boundaries, and project power over the loyalty of his followers.
Thank you for reading and I hope you make your own choice about what kind of country you would like to live in. I know this is not what you signed up for, but I at least have to try.
MESSAGE TO GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOM:
Going to jail will not fix this.
WE NEED YOU!
We need you to Enact Emergency Transparency Laws now, before it’s too late. This is not a joke! Get on the ground and calm the people and make them hear you. We need you to go to those protests and tell them, if they continue, we will lose.
We cannot afford to lose this fight. Losing this fight would mean losing the future of this beautiful state and I don’t want to see that happen.